tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34989425.post7152564441612811936..comments2023-07-08T06:36:52.942-07:00Comments on Two guys who, like, never agree: Time to place your base-ball thinking caps on your heads, gentlemenDieselhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02736353413710315191noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34989425.post-33390665521718405842007-04-30T15:06:00.000-07:002007-04-30T15:06:00.000-07:00One of the places that I would like to look at, re...<I>One of the places that I would like to look at, regarding 7th, 8th, inning scoring, is the teams that are 'leveraging' their way out of facing the opponents #1 reliever.</I><BR/><BR/>I don't understand what this means.Dieselhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02736353413710315191noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34989425.post-52241225639805776212007-04-28T11:40:00.000-07:002007-04-28T11:40:00.000-07:00"When you have to go to your 'pen, you lose and wh..."When you have to go to your 'pen, you lose and when you want to go to your 'pen you win."<BR/>Orel Hershiser's Big Book of conventional baseball wisdom<BR/><BR/>One of the places that I would like to look at, regarding 7th, 8th, inning scoring, is the teams that are 'leveraging' their way out of facing the opponents #1 reliever.M.M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05328815301651887717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34989425.post-56628565472994812682007-04-27T18:00:00.000-07:002007-04-27T18:00:00.000-07:00Hmmm ....1. While it's impossible to predict if an...Hmmm ....<BR/><BR/>1. While it's impossible to predict if any given situation will definitely be the highest-leverage one of a game, you can usually make educated guesses. Removing the hypothetical I presented (you're right that walking Pujols is the <I>only</I> move there, if a high-leverage situation presents itself in the seventh or eighth, doesn't it make more sense to worry about the "bird in hand" than it does to worry about what <I>might</I> happen? Particularly in later-game situations, there's a decent chance you won't be going through the order again, so what we're talking about is a guy to dispatch the other team's best hitter(s) in situations where not preventing runs at that time will seriously hinder your win expectancy. More precisely: Unless you're able to lock up that tough spot in the seventh, you're probably fucked in the ninth anyway. At any point in the last three innings, a team is going to encounter its highest-leverage situation. When you make someone a "closer," you put yourself in a spot where you don't have that same flexibility to use your best reliever when you can fairly well assume he's most needed.<BR/><BR/>It should also be noted that the only hangup with the title "closer" is the expectation it brings with it. It's entirely conceivable that teams will quit being slaves to the save and not make the closer title so loaded with strict role definitions. But that's not the case with the Phillies, or any other teams, right now.<BR/><BR/>2. I think it's a safe bet to say that Flash is probably still the best non-Myers alternative in the bullpen, but it doesn't change how I see it, much. First, there's nothing to say you couldn't use a former starter to work more than one inning; conceivably, Myers could work the seventh and eighth there. <BR/><BR/>Of course, what I'm suggesting is a pretty big leap for most teams, and more importantly the fan base/media. For my plan to work, it would require a team have the intestinal fortitude to ride it out and not listen to what the scribes say when Myers gets that crucial out, and then Geary or Flash get shelled an inning later and lose the game. The bottom line is that it really doesn't matter what happens afterward, because without that crucial out it's usually academic anyway. Does that make sense? It's harder for me to be clear in comments sections, I've found.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, I see your point as well. But I think that there's some sound logic behind what I'm proposing, and I really think it could make a killing on the big stage.Dieselhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02736353413710315191noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34989425.post-10894173493228692202007-04-27T15:17:00.000-07:002007-04-27T15:17:00.000-07:00An interesting take. A couple of non-snarky quest...An interesting take. A couple of non-snarky questions:<BR/><BR/>1. Isn't it impossible to know which situations are highest-leverage until the game is over? Meaning, if, say, Charlie throws Myers out there in the aforementioned situation (btw, who doesn't just walk Pujols there?) in the 7th inning. Myers gets the out. But then in the eighth the bases are loaded with no outs and Scott Rolen's at the plate (I think that's impossible, given the Cards' batting order, but go with me here.) Wouldn't the second situation be higher-leverage? In other words, isn't that one reason why closers are saved for the ninth, because doing so gives them the best chance of pitching in the highest-leverage situation?<BR/><BR/>2. I think the atrociousness of the Phillies bullpen tempers this discussion a bit. Meaning, the gap between Brett Myers and, say, Alfonseca or Geary (the two best relievers thus far) -- much less Flash, who's probably third or fourth on that list -- is prodigious, and so I don't think anybody wants Myers coming in to get a crucial out in the 7th and then leaving the team to rely on Flash or Rosario or Madson to close it out. Because, as we've seen repeatedly this year, that's not likely to happen.<BR/><BR/>It'll be interesting to see what happens as Myers acclimates to the bullpen, and as Charlie acclimates to having him there. He went to the 'pen right before the Phils started winning games by six runs (or losing them by two, as was the case last night), so he hasn't had a whole lot of opportunities to affect games.<BR/><BR/>I see you point, but am still inclined to think Myers should be the closer, and will be by the break.<BR/><BR/>(On a side note, a new wrinkle emerged when the Phils finally demoted Matt Smith yesterday and called up lefty Fabio Castro, probably their best relief prospect. Matt Smith was the best player we got in the Bobby Abreu deal. Seriously, was that trade great or what?)Sthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16688861685748385179noreply@blogger.com