Thursday, December 07, 2006

Let me get this straight ...

so your claims about this trade, both explicit and implicit, include:

1. It doesn't matter whom you trade for somebody when evaluating a trade.
2. The fact that Garcia has a slight disposition toward fly balls and gives up slightly more HRs per 9 than average means he's not going to do well for his new team. Somehow, this is because of park factor.

Well, in response to the first, it does matter. When you trade a raw 21-year old and a 24-year old bust who has proven that he can't contribute to your team for a durable, reliable front-of-the-rotation starter who just won 17 games and has a track record of postseason success, it matters. The Phils gave up very little to add a guy who would have probably commanded $13M/year or more (for a long time) on the free-agent market.

As for the second, park factor doesn't make that much of a difference. It's not going to turn good pitchers into bad pitchers, especially not when a good pitcher has already spent three successful years in a park that's worse. Was Freddy Garcia good last year in Comiskellular? Yes. Is there reason to believe he'll be just as good, if not better, in CBP? Yes.

I'm not even sure what the rest of your argument is, but here are some others places where you're wrong, just for kicks:

Cole Hamels has "WHIP issues" at 1.25?

Eric Milton is your example for the worst fly ball pitcher (probably apt), which in turn is your reason for saying these pitchers won't succeed in CBP (not so apt). Except Eric Milton was the Phillies' best starter his only year in CBP. He won 14 games and was nearly an All-Star despite giving up 43 home runs, the most of his career. So he's not such a great example of how giving up fly balls and home runs makes you a bad pitcher for the Phillies.

If Park Factor is so telling, why is Dodger Stadium -- usually called a pitcher's park -- rated almost exactly the same as CBP?

In other words, I think Park Factor is overrated. And I think the Phillies have a better rotation now than they did at any point last year, when they were trotting out the likes of Ryan Franklin, Eude Brito, and Gavin Floyd while they waited for Wolf to get healthy and Lieber to get fatter.

However, the Eaton signing looks worse and worse with each day that passes and does not bring us relief pitching help. If they don't upgrade the 'pen, all of this is moot, because they won't contend next year.

Oh, and if Keith Law is usually right, how do you explain the fact that he used to work for the Blue Jays?

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